Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.005143 0.005429 0.005724 0.006052 0.006408 0.006783 0.007208
2025-12-07 0.004602 0.005012 0.005455 0.005972 0.006561 0.007216 0.008002
2025-12-14 0.004298 0.004779 0.005315 0.005961 0.006724 0.007605 0.008709
2025-12-21 0.003963 0.004473 0.005054 0.005770 0.006640 0.007674 0.009014
2025-12-28 0.003799 0.004347 0.004984 0.005788 0.006789 0.008013 0.009654
2026-01-04 0.003687 0.004272 0.004963 0.005855 0.006992 0.008421 0.010399
2026-01-11 0.003536 0.004139 0.004863 0.005812 0.007047 0.008635 0.010895
2026-01-18 0.003417 0.004038 0.004793 0.005800 0.007136 0.008892 0.011458
2026-01-25 0.003294 0.003924 0.004700 0.005750 0.007166 0.009067 0.011914
2026-02-01 0.003252 0.003909 0.004732 0.005862 0.007417 0.009552 0.012846
2026-02-08 0.003157 0.003823 0.004666 0.005838 0.007477 0.009771 0.013396
2026-02-15 0.003079 0.003756 0.004620 0.005837 0.007566 0.010033 0.014027
2026-02-22 0.002969 0.003643 0.004511 0.005747 0.007526 0.010104 0.014369
2026-03-01 0.002872 0.003543 0.004416 0.005673 0.007503 0.010201 0.014757
2026-03-08 0.002805 0.003482 0.004370 0.005662 0.007573 0.010437 0.015392
2026-03-15 0.002682 0.003341 0.004211 0.005485 0.007384 0.010263 0.015314
2026-03-22 0.002634 0.003300 0.004187 0.005501 0.007487 0.010550 0.016054
2026-03-29 0.002605 0.003284 0.004196 0.005564 0.007662 0.010960 0.017048
2026-04-05 0.002543 0.003220 0.004138 0.005524 0.007675 0.011106 0.017569
2026-04-12 0.002494 0.003173 0.004100 0.005513 0.007732 0.011327 0.018248
2026-04-19 0.002436 0.003112 0.004040 0.005466 0.007729 0.011445 0.018739
2026-04-26 0.002427 0.003120 0.004078 0.005570 0.007973 0.012002 0.020147
2026-05-03 0.002381 0.003072 0.004037 0.005548 0.008009 0.012194 0.020834